Texas pecan growers expect a bigger crop this fall than last year, but heat, dry weather and disease could affect nut quality, and retail prices are expected to edge up. Here is what the forecasts say, and what it means if you are buying pecans for pies and pralines this holiday season.
How big is the 2026 Texas pecan crop?
In September, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension pecan specialist Monte Nesbitt estimated the Texas crop at about 39 million pounds, up from about 32 million pounds last year, according to Farm Progress. The Tri-State Pecan Growers Association put its estimate higher, near 42 million pounds. Texas growers did not release an official forecast at their July conference.
The catch: quality
A bigger crop does not guarantee better pecans. Nesbitt warned that disease and August heat and dryness could leave kernels poorly filled, noting that “shriveled, malformed kernels can hide inside normal-looking shells.” He called August the make-or-break month for the crop, while saying he expects good-quality pecans to come from somewhere in Texas.
Will pecans cost more this year?
Probably a little. Some lots from the 2025 crop sold for more than $2 a pound this spring and approached $3 a pound in early 2026, Farm Progress reported. Growers are also paying more for fuel, fertilizer and extra spraying. Nesbitt expects retail prices to rise slightly. Prices this fall and winter will also depend on early harvests and kernel quality in Georgia, Louisiana and East Texas.
When is pecan season?
Pecan trees bud in late March, and harvest cannot start before October. That makes late October through December the time to find fresh-crop pecans at Texas orchards, farmers markets and roadside stands, right in time for Thanksgiving and Christmas baking.
What this means for home cooks: expect plenty of new-crop Texas pecans this season, but check kernel quality and budget for slightly higher prices.
Photo: AI illustration.
Tips for buying pecans this season
- Buy new crop. Ask the seller if the pecans are from this fall’s harvest. Fresh pecans taste sweeter and are less likely to be bitter.
- Check the kernels. Good halves are plump, light golden-brown and snap cleanly. Skip bags with shriveled, dark or dusty-looking kernels; that is exactly the quality problem growers warned about this year.
- In-shell pecans cost less per pound but you lose roughly half the weight to shells. Shelled halves save time for pies.
- Store them cold. Pecans are high in oil and go stale at room temperature. Keep them in an airtight bag in the refrigerator, or in the freezer if you buy in bulk.
What to bake with them
Pecan pie (the official state pie of Texas), pralines, sweet potato casserole with pecan streusel and Texas sheet cake topped with toasted pecans are all coming up on Hill Country Weekly before Thanksgiving.
Ready to bake? Try our Texas pecan pie with a brown butter filling.
